Korea Is in an Awkward Spot

I sighed when I read a Goldman Sachs report from last year. It projected that by 2075, South Korea's GDP would fall to 25th in the world. You could sum it up in one line: the birth rate has collapsed, so the economy shrinks. But the names of the countries passing us carry too much weight for that. Malaysia, Turkey, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria. The world has always gone up and down, and we climbed over other people's backs to get where we are. I'd like to say calmly that what goes up must come down. Still, I think that as Koreans we have every right to be angry and sad about it.

I don't think this is only about a shrinking population, though. The world's geopolitical board is being reset, and Korea is standing in a more and more awkward spot on it. That's the real problem. If you assume Korea is a powerful country because we're strong in manufacturing, chips, and defense, you're badly mistaken. You just don't know how the world works.

1. What's really going on

Look at the war with Iran. Nobody sees it as a fight between the US and Iran. Everyone knows it's a proxy war inside the US-China rivalry for dominance. Yet some Korean YouTube news channels are calling the US the axis of evil. Of course Korea has freedom of the press, and I can't say it's a problem that those voices exist. But if that view stops being fringe and goes mainstream, that's a very serious problem.

Here's how the world looks if you're cold about it. The US and Europe haven't drifted apart because of some friction over tariffs. America came out of Europe in the first place. They're like parent and child. Korea and Japan are already core pillars of the Western bloc. In the Middle East, nearly every country except Iran is pro-Western: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and more. Israel and Saudi Arabia, longtime enemies, are working toward a summit. Money is stronger than religion. If you think the Western order is collapsing because Trump is fighting with the European Union, honestly, you're not paying much attention to the global economy.

2. If India rises, where does that leave Korea

The biggest variable is India. If the Middle East comes fully under American control, India, the most populous country on earth, becomes Europe's manufacturing floor. A safe trade route opens through Europe and on to the US too. The Middle East becomes the bridge.

Then there's Korea. We're the country sitting closest to China geographically, and no one is going to take on that risk just to trade with us. Until now, we've served as a manufacturing base for Europe and the US because we offered good quality for the price. But once India's quality catches up and a much shorter Middle East route opens, Korea is left holding nothing but the risk, and our value drops fast.

Japan at least is the son of a real estate tycoon. (It really is one of the countries with the most overseas real estate in the world, so it can just collect the rent.) Korea has always been the hardworking salaryman. When the work dries up, the salaryman is done.

3. Korea has always been on America's side

What hurts most is that Korea has done a great job positioning itself as a core pillar of the West. So it's a shame to see us taking such an ambiguous position now for the sake of short-term gains.

Some people say Korea's secret is "balanced diplomacy," keeping good relations with both the US and China. But honestly, Korea has always been on America's side, and that's how we got this far. Ask people to choose between the US and China, and anyone whose head is working right will pick the US. Across progressive and conservative governments alike, we held on to a remarkably shrewd position: we lost nothing and gained far more, purely from our strategic location. The degree varied depending on which party was in power. But just as the US has always kept Russia and China in check regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats were in charge, I think Korea has always put the US first. Until now.

Most young Koreans already know Korea's future isn't bright. Honestly, I think the talk about Korea rising to become a superpower is close to delusion. There's no reason for it to happen. When the 2075 GDP ranking came out, all I could do was sigh and accept it. But watching the Iran situation now, if Korea is standing in an awkward spot while fooling itself that it holds some strategic card, that's a truly sorry state of affairs.

I still think there's hope. Progressives and conservatives may head in different directions, but I'd like us to remember that we've always been pro-American, take a longer view, and move forward well. If we can analyze the causes and see this coming, I hope we defend ourselves as much as we can.

Originally published in Korean on Brunch, March 21, 2026.